BA.2, one of three main omicron sublineages, is sweeping the world.
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By Prakash Nagarkatti, University of South Carolina and Mitzi Nagarkatti, University of South Carolina
A new omicron subvariant of the virus that causes COVID-19, BA.2, is quickly becoming the predominant source of infections amid rising cases around the world. Immunologists Prakash Nagarkatti and Mitzi Nagarkatti of the University of South Carolina explain what makes it different from previous variants, whether there will be another surge in the U.S. and how best to protect yourself.
What is BA.2, and how is it related to omicron?
BA.2 is the latest subvariant of omicron, the dominant strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. While the origin of BA.2 is still unclear, it has quickly become the dominant strain in many countries, including India, Denmark and South Africa. It is continuing to spread in Europe, Asia and many parts of the world.
The omicron variant, officially known as B.1.1.529, of SARS-CoV-2 has three main subvariants in its lineage: BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3. The earliest omicron subvariant to be detected, BA.1, was first reported in November 2021 in South Africa. While scientists believe that all the subvariants may have emerged around the same time, BA.1 was predominantly responsible for the winter surge of infections in the Northern Hemisphere in 2021.
The first omicron subvariant, BA.1, is unique in the number of alterations it has compared to the original version of the virus – it has over 30 mutations in the spike protein that helps it enter cells. Spike protein mutations are of high concern to scientists and public health officials because they affect how infectious a particular variant is and whether it is able to escape the protective antibodies that the body produces after vaccination or a prior COVID-19 infection.
BA.2 has eight unique mutations not found in BA.1, and lacks 13 mutations that BA.1 does have. BA.2 does, however, share around 30 mutations with BA.1. Because of its relative genetic similarity, it is considered a subvariant of omicron as opposed to a completely new variant.
Why is it called a ‘stealth’ variant?
While standard PCR tests are still able to detect the BA.2 variant, they might not be able to tell it apart from the delta variant.
Is it more infectious and lethal than other variants?
It is worth noting that while BA.1 has dominated case numbers around the world, it causes less severe disease compared to the delta variant. Recent studies from the U.K. and Denmark suggest that BA.2 may pose a similar risk of hospitalization as BA.1.
Does previous infection with BA.1 provide protection against BA.2?
Yes! A recent study suggested that people previously infected with the original BA.1 subvariant have robust protection against BA.2.
Because BA.1 caused widespread infections across the world, it is likely that a significant percentage of the population has protective immunity against BA.2. This is why some scientists predict that BA.2 will be less likely to cause another major wave
However, while the natural immunity gained after COVID-19 infection may provide strong protection against reinfection from earlier variants, it weakens against omicron.
How effective are vaccines against BA.2?
A recent preliminary study that has not yet been peer reviewed of over 1 million individuals in Qatar suggests that two doses of either the Pfizer–BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines protect against symptomatic infection from BA.1 and BA.2 for several months before waning to around 10%. A booster shot, however, was able to elevate protection again close to original levels.
Importantly, both vaccines were 70% to 80% effective at preventing hospitalization or death, and this effectiveness increased to over 90% after a booster dose.
How worried does the US need to be about BA.2?
The rise in BA.2 in certain parts of the world is most likely due to a combination of its higher transmissibility, people’s waning immunity and relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions.
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Though there may be an uptick of BA.2 infections in the coming months, protective immunity from vaccination or previous infection provides defense against severe disease. This may make it less likely that BA.2 will cause a significant increase in hospitalization and deaths. The U.S., however, lags behind other countries when it comes to vaccination, and falls even further behind on boosters.
Whether there will be another devastating surge depends on how many people are vaccinated or have been previously infected with BA.1. It’s safer to generate immunity from a vaccine, however, than from getting an infection. Getting vaccinated and boosted and taking precautions like wearing an N95 mask and social distancing are the best ways to protect yourself from BA.2 and other variants.
09/30/2022 COVID-19 Data Source: Civil Society Partners against COVID-19
SARS2 Update 2022-09-29 20:45 GMT
- 254 Regions reported 620,889,756 cases
- 12,918,326 cases active
- 6,564,048 people reported killed by COVID-19
- 1.06% is current Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
- 601,407,382 survived COVID-19
Beta Technology Global Estimates
- 43.41% of all humans (3,433,520,350) have been infected
- 0.57% Global estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
(influenza is .1% or 6 per 100k (2019))
- 19,685,251 Total deaths (CSPaC.net estimated actual) including errors, and unreported likely-cause excess deaths such as people who never went to a hospital but had COVID-19 indications but never tested.
EPICENTER: USA (96,249,218)
- 160.53% of the USA may have been infected or even reinfected including reported + estimated unreported mild and estimated asymptomatic (532,258,175.54) human infections, some of which may not have been ill in their first course of the disease, but could have spread the disease.
- 1.12% is USA current Case Fatality Rate (CFR) &
- 0.25% is estimated inferred average Infection Fatality Rate (IFR)
- 1,330,645 estimated total COVID-19 deaths including unreported likely-cause excess deaths. According to projections of IHME, IHME calculation of excess deaths is slightly higher than what CSPaC is showing.
09/30/2022 Source: Civil Society Partners against COVID-19
COVID-19 Leadership Comparisons
U.S.A.: Joseph Biden
- 97,502,133 Cases
- 1,083,227 reported out of 1,330,645 Excess Deaths
- 94,795,655 Recoveries
India: Narendra Modi
- 44,581,297 Cases
- 528,584 Reported Deaths
- 44,009,525 Recoveries
Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro
- 34,688,063 Cases
- 685,930 Reported Deaths
- 33,818,040 Recoveries
UK: Boris Johnson (resigned)
- 23,621,952 Cases
- 189,919 Reported Deaths
- 23,339,985 Recoveries
--- --- --- Compare --- --- ---
Germany: Olaf Scholz
- 33,137,143 Cases
- 149,714 Deaths
- 32,251,900 Recoveries
Netherlands: Mark Rutte
- 8,422,336 Cases
- 22,643 Deaths
- 8,336,394 Recoveries
Canada: Justin Trudeau
- 4,259,370 Cases
- 45,180 Deaths
- 4,166,869 Recoveries
China: Xi Jinping
- 250,123 Cases
- 5,226 Deaths
- 241,906 Recoveries
South Korea: Moon Jae-In
- 24,709,789 Cases
- 28,318 Deaths
- 24,210,601 Recoveries
New Zealand: Jacinda Ardern
- 1,779,476 Cases
- 2,959 Deaths
- 1,767,660 Recoveries
Taiwan: Tsai Ing-wen
- 6,373,121 Cases
- 10,950 Deaths
- 5,569,055 Recoveries
09/30/2022 Source: Civil Society Partners against COVID-19
Prakash Nagarkatti, Professor of Pathology, Microbiology and Immunology, University of South Carolina and Mitzi Nagarkatti, Professor of Pathology, Microbiology and Immunology, University of South Carolina